Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models

Hiroto Shiraki () and Masahiro Sugiyama ()
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Hiroto Shiraki: The University of Shiga Prefecture
Masahiro Sugiyama: The University of Tokyo

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 162, issue 1, No 2, 13-24

Abstract: Abstract With the shift of climate debate from understanding to actions, the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) is gradually expanding. Since IAMs produce least-cost pathways, technoeconomic parameters constitute one of the basic parameters. Traditionally, IAMs dealt with technologies with slowly-changing, relatively homogeneous manner. Since technologies are rapidly evolving, and the pattern of technological development is regionally heterogeneous, the IAM community must embrace a new strategy to treat their underlying technoeconomic parameters. Here we illustrate such challenges by reviewing the treatment and performance of IAMs with respect to some of the rapidly changing technologies (e.g., solar, wind, and batteries). Our review shows that IAMs have difficulty in updating the cost of the rapidly changing technologies. We then articulate a new strategy, drawing upon the lesson from the current model intercomparison projects and climate sciences. We argue that a loose network of modeling groups across the globe should create a database of technological parameters in a standardized format and standard evaluation tool, perhaps to be facilitated by the IAM Consortium. Such a framework would contribute to the review of the progress toward the Paris Agreement goals.

Keywords: Climate change mitigation; Technology-policy interaction; Integrated assessment model; Energy scenario; Best available database; Evaluation tool (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02731-4

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