Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches

Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle (), Stefan Vögele, Wolfgang Hauser, Hannah Kosow, Witold-Roger Poganietz and Sigrid Prehofer
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Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle: University of Stuttgart
Wolfgang Hauser: University of Stuttgart
Hannah Kosow: University of Stuttgart
Witold-Roger Poganietz: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Sigrid Prehofer: University of Stuttgart

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 162, issue 4, No 3, 1723-1741

Abstract: Abstract Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. In energy scenario construction, this perspective is increasingly acknowledged through the approach of informing model-based energy analysis with storylines about societal futures, an exercise we call “socio-technical energy scenario construction” in this article. However, there is a dispute about how to construct the storylines in a traceable, consistent, comprehensive, and reproducible way. This study aims to support energy researchers considering the use of the concept of socio-technical scenarios in two ways: first, we provide a state-of-the-art analysis of socio-technical energy scenario construction by comparing 16 studies with respect to five categories. Second, we address the dispute regarding storyline construction in energy research and examine 13 reports using the Cross-Impact Balances method. We collated researcher statements on the strengths and challenges of this method and identified seven categories of promises and challenges each.

Keywords: Energy scenario; Socio-technical scenario; Energy transition; Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02680-y

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