Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina

Tamara Sofía Propato (), Diego Abelleyra, María Semmartin and Santiago R. Verón
Additional contact information
Tamara Sofía Propato: INTA, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
Diego Abelleyra: INTA, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
María Semmartin: CONICET, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
Santiago R. Verón: INTA, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 166, issue 1, No 25, 18 pages

Abstract: Abstract The description of the relationship between temperature (T) and electricity consumption (EC) is key to improving our understanding of a potential climate change amplification feedback and, thus, energy planning. We sought to characterize the relationship between the EC and daily T of different regions of Argentina and use these historical relationships to estimate expected EC under T future scenarios. We used a time series approach to model EC, removing trends and seasonality and accounting for breaks and discontinuities. EC and T data were obtained from Argentine Wholesale Market Administrator Company and global databases, respectively. We evaluate the T-EC model for the period between 1997 and 2014 and two sub-periods: 1997–2001 and 2011–2014. We use modeled temperature projections for the 2027–2044 period based on the Representative Pathway Concentration 4.5 together with our region-specific T-EC models to predict changes in EC due to T changes. The shape of the T-EC relationships is quite stable between periods and regions but varies according to the temperature gradient. We find large increases in EC in warm days (from 40 to 126 Wh/cap/°C) and a region-specific response to cold days (from flat to steep responses). The T at which EC was at minimum varies between 14 and 20 °C and increase in time as mean daily T also increase. Estimated temperature projections translate into an average increase factor of 7.2 in EC with contrasting relative importance between regions of Argentina. Results highlight potential sensitivity of EC to T in the developing countries.

Keywords: Shape; Threshold temperature; Warm temperature regimes; Cool temperature regimes; Time series analysis; Temperature scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03129-6 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03129-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03129-6

Access Statistics for this article

Climatic Change is currently edited by M. Oppenheimer and G. Yohe

More articles in Climatic Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().