Future surface temperatures over Europe according to CMIP6 climate projections: an analysis with original and bias-corrected data

D Carvalho (), S Cardoso Pereira and A Rocha
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D Carvalho: University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago
S Cardoso Pereira: University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago
A Rocha: University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 167, issue 1, No 10, 17 pages

Abstract: Abstract Future changes in the mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature over Europe are investigated according to CMIP6 future climate projections. All the temperature variables are projected to increase across Europe particularly in northern and southernmost latitudes, where according to SSP5-8.5 the warming can reach 2–3 (5–6) °C at the middle (end) of the current century. The warming is particularly strong in Northern (Mediterranean) areas in winter (summer) seasons. The occurrence of hot days (mean temperature > 30 °C) is projected to increase in all southern Europe by the end of the century (> 40–60 days/year), particularly in the southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula and Turkey. Increases in the occurrence of very hot days (maximum temperature > 40 °C) are projected in the central-southern areas of the Iberian Peninsula (30–40 days/year) and southern Turkey (> 50 days/year) in the end of the century. Tropical nights are expected to increase throughout the century in all Europe (except the northernmost latitudes), particularly at southern Europe for the 2081–2100 period (50–80 nights/year). Frost days (minimum temperature

Keywords: Climate change; Extreme temperatures; Global warming; CMIP6; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03159-0

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