Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

Binod Pokharel (), Shankar Sharma, Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen, Shih-Yu Simon Wang, Matthew LaPlante, Robert R. Gillies, Sujan Khanal, Michael Wehner, Alan Rhoades, Kalpana Hamal, Benjamin Hatchett, Wan-Yu Liu, Sarbajit Mukherjee and Deepak Aryal
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Binod Pokharel: Tribhuvan University
Shankar Sharma: Tribhuvan University
Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen: Utah State University
Shih-Yu Simon Wang: Utah State University
Matthew LaPlante: Utah State University
Robert R. Gillies: Utah State University
Sujan Khanal: Kathmandu Institute of Applied Sciences
Michael Wehner: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Alan Rhoades: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Kalpana Hamal: Freie Universität Berlin (FUB)
Benjamin Hatchett: Desert Research Institute
Wan-Yu Liu: National Chung Hsing University
Sarbajit Mukherjee: Utah Climate Center, Utah State University
Deepak Aryal: Tribhuvan University

Climatic Change, 2023, vol. 176, issue 2, No 16, 21 pages

Abstract: Abstract In spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.

Keywords: Active fire points; Drought; SPEI; Prediction model; Climate change; Nepal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03495-3

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