A framework to assess climate change effects on surface air temperature and soil moisture and application to Southwestern France

Marine Lanet (), Laurent Li and Hervé Le Treut
Additional contact information
Marine Lanet: Sorbonne Université, ENS, Université PSL, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRS
Laurent Li: Sorbonne Université, ENS, Université PSL, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRS
Hervé Le Treut: Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université

Climatic Change, 2024, vol. 177, issue 12, No 2, 17 pages

Abstract: Abstract A comprehensive framework for climate change assessment is a prerequisite for managing multiple risks related to climate extremes, such as droughts, floods, or compound extreme events. It is also useful for addressing the diverging interests of stakeholders in finding regional adaptation solutions. Here, we design such a framework and a general methodology to assess the evolution of regional climate. Both mean values and extreme event characteristics of surface air temperature and soil moisture are analysed, including the likelihood of compound hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, and cold-wet extreme conditions. These analyses are conducted for each month to investigate a variety of climate change impacts. The methodology is designed to be generic and easily applicable to any region of the world. It provides a foundational basis for initiating dialogue with local decision-makers, which will subsequently allow for further refinement of climatic impact-driver indices and analyses to produce tailored climate services. This work reports an application to Southwestern France, a region vulnerable to both floods and droughts with severe impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies. Drying and warming are expected throughout the year, with more pronounced effects in summer. This study highlights the complexity of designing adaptation solutions and the need for in-depth and comprehensive analyses of the evolution of local climate conditions. Specifically, Southwestern France is expected to experience an increase in drought frequency and intensity, while the region might still have to cope with the opposite phenomenon, floods.

Keywords: Extreme events; Climate change impacts; Risk assessment; Adaptation; Drought; CMIP6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03825-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03825-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03825-z

Access Statistics for this article

Climatic Change is currently edited by M. Oppenheimer and G. Yohe

More articles in Climatic Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().