Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes under climate change

Sofia Fuente, Eleanor Jennings, John D. Lenters, Piet Verburg, Georgiy Kirillin, Tom Shatwell, Raoul-Marie Couture, Marianne Côté, C. Love Råman Vinnå and R. Iestyn Woolway ()
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Sofia Fuente: Dundalk Institute of Technology
Eleanor Jennings: Dundalk Institute of Technology
John D. Lenters: University of Michigan Biological Station
Piet Verburg: School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington
Georgiy Kirillin: Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries
Tom Shatwell: Ostwestfalen-Lippe University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Department of Environmental Engineering and Applied Computer Science
Raoul-Marie Couture: Université Laval
Marianne Côté: Université Laval
C. Love Råman Vinnå: Surface Waters - Research and Management
R. Iestyn Woolway: Bangor University

Climatic Change, 2024, vol. 177, issue 12, No 5, 18 pages

Abstract: Abstract Lakes represent a vital source of freshwater, accounting for 87% of the Earth’s accessible surface freshwater resources and providing a range of ecosystem services, including water for human consumption. As climate change continues to unfold, understanding the potential evaporative water losses from lakes becomes crucial for effective water management strategies. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change on the evaporation rates of 23 European lakes and reservoirs of varying size during the warm season (July–September). To assess the evaporation trends, we employ a 12-member ensemble of model projections, utilizing three one-dimensional process-based lake models. These lake models were driven by bias-corrected climate simulations from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering both a historical (1970–2005) and future (2006–2099) period. Our findings reveal a consistent projection of increased warm-season evaporation across all lakes this century, though the magnitude varies depending on specific factors. By the end of this century (2070–2099), we estimate a 21%, 30% and 42% average increase in evaporation rates in the studied European lakes under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Moreover, future projections of the relationship between precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) in the studied lakes, suggest that P-E will decrease this century, likely leading to a deficit in the availability of surface water. The projected increases in evaporation rates underscore the significance of adapting strategic management approaches for European lakes to cope with the far-reaching consequences of climate change.

Keywords: Multi-model; Water availability; Europe; Ensemble; Lake evaporation; Latent heat flux (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2

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