The autocratic gamble: evidence from robust variance tests

Fabio Monteforte () and Jonathan Temple
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Fabio Monteforte: University of Messina

Economics of Governance, 2020, vol. 21, issue 4, No 4, 363-384

Abstract: Abstract This paper examines whether autocracy is a gamble. Using robust variance tests and other analyses, we find that long-term growth varies more across autocracies than across democracies. This remains true even when richer countries are excluded from the sample. We also investigate channels, to see if the higher variance of growth outcomes across autocracies can be traced to a higher variance in investment ratios or productivity growth. Overall, the paper’s findings suggest that growth prospects are more uncertain for autocracies than democracies, and especially for closed autocracies. From the viewpoint of a domestic population, autocracy remains a gamble.

Keywords: Democracy; Autocracy; Economic growth; Robust variance tests (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H11 O40 O43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10101-020-00245-4

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