The economic cost of the Arab Spring: the case of the Egyptian revolution

Cruz A. Echevarría () and Javier García-Enríquez
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Cruz A. Echevarría: University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU
Javier García-Enríquez: University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Javier García Enríquez

Empirical Economics, 2020, vol. 59, issue 3, No 18, 1453-1477

Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes the effects that the Arab Spring and the subsequent revolution had on per capita real Gross Domestic Product in Egypt. The estimation procedure that we follow is the synthetic control method. After comparing the observed evolution of Egyptian real output in the period 2011–2017 with that of synthetic Egypt, our estimates show (i) an accumulated loss in the growth rate of per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 12.04% (a yearly average of 1.56%); (ii) an accumulated loss in the per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 6279.7 dollars (a yearly average of 897.1 dollars); and (iii) an accumulated loss in the aggregate real Gross Domestic Product of 582.5 billion dollars (a yearly average of 83.2 billion dollars).

Keywords: Case study; Synthetic control method; Treatment effect; Arab Spring; Egypt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01684-7

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