Revisions in the Norwegian National Accounts: accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency in preliminary figures

Magnus Kvåle Helliesen, Håvard Hungnes and Terje Skjerpen
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Magnus Kvåle Helliesen: Statistics Norway

Empirical Economics, 2022, vol. 62, issue 3, No 6, 1079-1121

Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the quality of preliminary figures in the Norwegian National Accounts. To address the problem of few observations in such analyses, we use some recently developed system tests for forecast evaluation. We find that preliminary figures for growth rates NA figures (measured in real terms) are accurate, unbiased and efficient. The exception is growth rates for real gross fixed capital formation, which under-predict the final figures. Early published vintages of growth rates for real gross fixed capital formation are often closer to the final vintages than later vintages are.

Keywords: Forecasting; Encompassing; Equal predictability; Revision; National accounts data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C22 C32 E01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: Revisions in the Norwegian National Accounts. Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency in preliminary figures (2020)
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-021-02065-9

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