Measuring and explaining efficiency of pre-vaccine country responses to COVID-19 pandemic: a conditional robust nonparametric approach

Arthur S. Kuchenbecker, Hudson S. Torrent and Flavio A. Ziegelmann ()
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Arthur S. Kuchenbecker: EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance (FGV EPGE)
Hudson S. Torrent: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
Flavio A. Ziegelmann: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)

Empirical Economics, 2025, vol. 68, issue 1, No 2, 107-137

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we propose the use of a conditional nonparametric robust estimator to evaluate countries pre-vaccine responses to the outburst of COVID-19 pandemic. We collect data for 105 countries (comprehending the initial period of the pandemic through the end of May 2021), with variables regarding the death toll, economic indicators, demographic characteristics and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We create a novel empirical framework for estimating efficiency of countries responses in more general terms than simply evaluating healthcare system performance. We use two distinct well-known second-stage approaches: regressing the conditional efficiency scores on the environmental factors, in order to compute measures of managerial efficiency to rank responses; and regressing the ratio of conditional and unconditional scores on conditioning factors, seeking to explore the relationship between non-pharmaceutical interventions and estimated efficiencies. Our results indicate which countries and regions stood out for presenting efficient/inefficient responses and point to an expected conclusion: The environmental factor elderly population has a significant and unfavorable effect on a country efficiency. Furthermore, the factors median stringency index and median retail and recreation visitors change show no significant effect on efficiency.

Keywords: Productivity and competitiveness; Partial frontier; Nonparametric methods; Conditional efficiency; COVID-19 response (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-024-02635-7

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