Impacts of climate change on rice production: evidence from 30 Chinese provinces

Robert Becker Pickson (), Ge He () and Elliot Boateng ()
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Robert Becker Pickson: Sichuan Agricultural University
Ge He: Sichuan Agricultural University
Elliot Boateng: University of Newcastle

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2022, vol. 24, issue 3, No 38, 3907-3925

Abstract: Abstract This study examined the effects of climate change on rice production in 30 Chinese provinces spanning 1998–2017. The study used the pooled mean group technique to capture the long-run and short-run effects of changing climatic conditions on rice production. It further employed the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test to examine the path of causality between the key variables and rice production. The study found that, in the long run, average temperature negatively influenced rice production, but average rainfall had a positive effect on rice production. The results indicated that the cultivated area and fertilizer usage were positively related to rice production in the long run. The short-run results accentuated that average temperature favourably influenced nationwide rice production, whereas average rainfall had no substantial effect on national rice production. The cultivated area had a significant positive short-term relationship with rice production, although the impact of fertilizer usage on rice production was negligible in the short run. Besides, the results established a bidirectional causality between rice output and the cultivated area, but there was a one-way causality running from fertilizer usage to rice output. Finally, the results indicated that, except for rainfall, a unidirectional causality exists between temperature and rice production. The study, therefore, recommends that in the case of crop failure due to weather conditions, policymakers could implement a new pricing policy to mitigate the deterioration of the farmers’ income. The government must also develop and implement an insurance scheme that compensates farmers for catastrophes induced by rainfall deficiency.

Keywords: Climate change; Rice production; Fertilizer usage; Cultivated area; Panel ARDL; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01594-8

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