System dynamics model of Beijing urban public transport carbon emissions based on carbon neutrality target

Lei Wen and Anqi Wang ()
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Lei Wen: North China Electric Power University
Anqi Wang: North China Electric Power University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2023, vol. 25, issue 11, No 23, 12706 pages

Abstract: Abstract Since the 18th National Congress of Chinese Communist Party, ecological civilization construction has been incorporated into Five-sphere Integrated Plan, that is, to promote coordinated progress in the economic, political, cultural, social, and eco-environmental fields. The Chinese government has proposed the goal of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”. Low-carbon transportation becomes the mainstream. To achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in public transport, this paper takes Beijing’s public transport sector as a case study, using system dynamics model with relevant policies and the current situation. It calculates and predicts carbon emissions under electric vehicle substitution scenario, clean energy generation, and carbon capture, utilization and storage scenario for the period of 2020–2060. The following main conclusions are obtained: Direct carbon emissions have peaked and started to decline based on the current measures, while indirect carbon emissions have peaked and started to decline under the suggested intervention. The direct carbon emissions peaked at 2.58005 × 106 tons in 2014. The indirect carbon emissions peaked at 1.59027 × 106 in 2025. They all achieved carbon neutrality under the suggested intervention. Electric vehicle substitution and carbon capture, clean energy generation, utilization and storage are the main factors of carbon emission reduction. The outcomes of this study can provide essential information for policy-makers to advance Beijing's future low-carbon development in public transport. The electric vehicle substitution, clean energy generation and carbon capture, utilization and storage provide a new perspective to research carbon emissions in the transport sector.

Keywords: System dynamics; Carbon emissions; Carbon neutrality; Emissions; Public transport (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02586-y

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