What structural factors have held back China's birth rate?

Lidan Yang, Jiahong Guo and Shixiong Cao ()
Additional contact information
Lidan Yang: Minzu University of China
Jiahong Guo: Minzu University of China
Shixiong Cao: Minzu University of China

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2024, vol. 26, issue 1, No 22, 565-578

Abstract: Abstract In contrast to the overpopulation predicted by the population explosion theory in the 1960s, the issue of depopulation has attracted increasing attention from governments and scholars around the world. To explore the driving factors that have affected the birth rate in China, we obtained data on the birth rates in 31 Chinese provinces from 1990 to 2019. We then conducted feasible generalized least-squares regression analysis to identify the key factors. The results show that marketization, education level, and the proportions of secondary and tertiary industries were the key factors contributing to the decreasing birth rate, whereas improvements of transportation and medical services supported the desire to have children. Although the degree of influence of different factors differed over time and across regions, the economic and educational factors remained important and should not be underestimated. We propose that if the government wants to increase the willingness of young men and women to have children and help China to maintain a sustainable population, it should reduce the economic and opportunity costs of childbearing and the burden of raising children. Our methodology and outcomes will provide a reference for other countries that must identify key driving factors to support the development of their own population policies.

Keywords: Demographics; Population explosion; Population decline; Population policies; Birth rate; Economic factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-022-02723-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02723-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10668

DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02723-7

Access Statistics for this article

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development is currently edited by Luc Hens

More articles in Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().