Analysis and prediction of carbon emissions from food consumption of middle-income groups: evidence from Yangtze River Economic Belt in China

Qinghua Pang, Min Xiang and Lina Zhang ()
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Qinghua Pang: Hohai University
Min Xiang: Hohai University
Lina Zhang: Hohai University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2024, vol. 26, issue 2, No 28, 3505 pages

Abstract: Abstract Food consumption has resulted in great carbon emissions in recent years. China has been facing the new mitigation challenge of carbon emissions with its emerging middle-income groups, especially in urban areas. This paper analyzes and predicts carbon emissions from food consumption (CEFC) of middle-income groups in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), which has a higher emerging middle-income group and the highest economic corridor in China. Few studies address CEFC analysis from middle-income groups perspective; thus, this paper calculates urban–rural CEFC of middle-income groups spanning 2010–2018 and predicts them in 2025, 2030 and 2035 using the extended IPAT model. Results are as follows: (1) YREB’s urban–rural CEFC of middle-income groups show an upward trend and present a spatial pattern of “low–high–low–high” from the western region to the eastern region. Urban CEFC of middle-income groups are significantly higher than that of rural areas; (2) rural CEFC of middle-income groups in the YREB will first increase in 2025 and then decrease in 2030 and 2035. The growing trend of urban CEFC of middle-income groups will show a significant downward from 2025 to 2035. The growing proportion of urban CEFC of middle-income groups will exhibit an objective growth in 2035. Understanding the changing trend of CEFC of middle-income groups provides governments with differentiated and forward-looking suggestions toward coordinating middle-income groups’ expansion and carbon emissions reduction.

Keywords: Food consumption; Carbon emissions; Middle-income groups; Prediction analysis; Yangtze River Economic Belt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02843-0

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