Does ICT change the relationship between trade openness and CO2 emissions? Evidence for RCEP countries

Yang Yu () and Yiming Du
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Yang Yu: Beijing University of Chemical Technology
Yiming Du: Beijing University of Chemical Technology

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 1, No 28, 857-879

Abstract: Abstract Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has accelerated the combination of information and communication technology (ICT) and international trade, raising debate about sustainability. Using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, we investigated the impact of ICT and trade openness on CO2 emissions in 11 selected RCEP countries from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that (i) the role of total trade in CO2 emission reduction in RCEP countries gradually emerges along with ICT diffusion, (ii) with a rise in ICT level, imports always increase CO2 discharge, while the impact of exports on CO2 emissions changes from positive to negative, and (iii) the influence of total trade, exports, and imports on CO2 emissions has significant country heterogeneity and reveals declining, falling, and rising temporal characteristics. Furthermore, to explore the CO2 emission caused by ICT development in each country, we applied a two-step forecast method to project CO2 emissions from RCEP economies under different scenarios of ICT development. It is discovered that ICT development does not lead to a downward trend in CO2 emissions in all RCEP countries. ICT contributes to rising CO2 emissions in China and Indonesia.

Keywords: Trade openness; ICT; RCEP countries; PSTR model; ARIMA model; Scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03879-6

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