Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an integrated assessment model

Ryna Yiyun Cui, Stephanie Waldhoff, Leon Clarke, Nathan Hultman, Anand Patwardhan and Elisabeth A. Gilmore ()
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Ryna Yiyun Cui: University of Maryland
Stephanie Waldhoff: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Leon Clarke: Bezos Earth Fund
Nathan Hultman: University of Maryland
Anand Patwardhan: University of Maryland
Elisabeth A. Gilmore: Carleton University

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2022, vol. 42, issue 4, 547-555

Abstract: Abstract Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the global change analysis model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the shared socioeconomic pathways. Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions are more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.

Keywords: Food security; Household expenditures; Integrated assessment model; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Climate change; Climate policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10669-022-09860-4

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