Spatial autocorrelation and clusters in modelling corporate bankruptcy of manufacturing firms

M. Simona Andreano (), Roberto Benedetti (), Andrea Mazzitelli () and Federica Piersimoni ()
Additional contact information
M. Simona Andreano: Universitas Mercatorum
Roberto Benedetti: University of Chieti-Pescara
Andrea Mazzitelli: Universitas Mercatorum
Federica Piersimoni: Italian National Statistical Institute

Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 2018, vol. 45, issue 4, No 2, 475-491

Abstract: Abstract The interest in the prediction of firms’ bankruptcy is increasing in the recent recession period 2008–2012, when, in Italy, the number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply. The most popular model applied by bankruptcy researchers is the logit model (logistic regression model). In the present paper we extend this classical model in two different ways, to take into account the spatial effects that can highly affect bankruptcy probability. We propose to apply the spatial Autologistic model and the Logit Regression Tree, with the aim to find evidence of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity in bankruptcy probability, of the manufacturing firms of Prato and Florence (Italy). Our application shows that spatial contagion effects are an important issue when modelling bankruptcy probability. Moreover, the application of the regression tree analysis shows the presence of three different clusters, with heterogeneous behaviours.

Keywords: Default probability; Autologistic model; Heterogeneity; Spatial dependence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C21 C54 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40812-018-0097-x Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:epolin:v:45:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s40812-018-0097-x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/40812

DOI: 10.1007/s40812-018-0097-x

Access Statistics for this article

Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics is currently edited by C. Cambini, M.G. Colombo, L. Piscitello, L. Rondi and A. Zanfei

More articles in Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics from Springer, Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().