Epidemics and policy: the dismal trade-offs

Francesco Flaviano Russo ()
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Francesco Flaviano Russo: University of Naples Federico II and CSEF

Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, 2023, vol. 40, issue 2, No 7, 588 pages

Abstract: Abstract I propose a stochastic SIR-Macro model to study the effects of alternative mitigation policies to cope with an epidemic. Lockdowns that force firms to close and that discontinue social activities slow down the progression of the epidemic at the cost of reducing GDP and increasing debt and, on average, decrease mortality. Testing-Tracing-Quarantine policies decrease mortality at a lower cost, but they are effective only if thorough. I find that lockdowns work best in case of a bigger average family size, of a diffused labor market participation and of a bigger average firm size.

Keywords: Lockdown; Testing; Pathogen; Quarantine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 H12 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s40888-022-00279-3

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