Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

S. A. Trigger () and A. M. Ignatov
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S. A. Trigger: Joint Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences
A. M. Ignatov: Prokhorov General Physics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2022, vol. 95, issue 11, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement. Graphic abstract

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1140/epjb/s10051-022-00457-z

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