The aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey: a comparative analysis with COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis

Deniz Erer, Elif Erer () and Selim Güngör
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Deniz Erer: Independent Researcher
Elif Erer: Manisa Celal Bayar University
Selim Güngör: Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University

Financial Innovation, 2023, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-25

Abstract: Abstract This study aims to examine the time-varying efficiency of the Turkish stock market’s major stock index and eight sectoral indices, including the industrial, financial, service, information technology, basic metals, tourism, real estate investment, and chemical petrol plastic, during the COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis (GFC) within the framework of the adaptive market hypothesis. This study employs multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to illustrate these sectors’ multifractality and short- and long-term dependence. The results show that all sectoral returns have greater persistence during the COVID-19 outbreak than during the GFC. Second, the real estate and information technology industries had the lowest levels of efficiency during the GFC and the COVID-19 outbreak. Lastly, the fat-tailed distribution has a greater effect on multifractality in these industries. Our results validate the conclusions of the adaptive market hypothesis, according to which arbitrage opportunities vary over time, and contribute to policy formulation for future outbreak-induced economic crises.

Keywords: MF-DFA; Adaptive market hypothesis; Global financial crisis; COVID-19 outbreak; Sectoral indices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 E44 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00484-4

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