Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China

Waichon Lio () and Baoding Liu ()
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Waichon Lio: Tsinghua University
Baoding Liu: Tsinghua University

Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 2021, vol. 20, issue 2, No 2, 177-188

Abstract: Abstract Assume an uncertain process follows an uncertain differential equation, and some realizations of this process are observed. Parameter estimation for the uncertain differential equation that fits the observed data as much as possible is a core problem in practice. This paper first presents a problem of initial value estimation for uncertain differential equations and proposes an estimation method. In addition, the method of moments is recast for estimating the time-varying parameters in uncertain differential equations. Using those techniques, a COVID-19 spread model based on uncertain differential equation is derived, and the zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China is inferred.

Keywords: Uncertainty theory; Uncertain statistics; Uncertain differential equation; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10700-020-09337-6

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