Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China

Lifen Jia and Wei Chen ()
Additional contact information
Lifen Jia: Capital University of Economics and Business
Wei Chen: Capital University of Economics and Business

Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 2021, vol. 20, issue 2, No 6, 243-259

Abstract: Abstract The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed (SEIAR) epidemic model is one of most frequently used epidemic models. As an application of uncertain differential equations to epidemiology, an uncertain SEIAR model is derived which considers the human uncertainty factors during the spread of an epidemic. The parameters in the uncertain epidemic model are estimated with the numbers of COVID-19 cases in China, and a prediction to the possible numbers of active cases is made based on the estimates.

Keywords: Uncertainty theory; Uncertain differential equation; Uncertain SEIAR model; COVID-19; Parameter estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10700-020-09341-w Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:fuzodm:v:20:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10700-020-09341-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/10700

DOI: 10.1007/s10700-020-09341-w

Access Statistics for this article

Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making is currently edited by Shu-Cherng Fang and Boading Liu

More articles in Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().