Nowcast models for train delays based on the railway network status

Adithya Thaduri ()
Additional contact information
Adithya Thaduri: Luleå University of Technology

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2020, vol. 11, issue 2, No 7, 184-195

Abstract: Abstract Switches and crossings (S&C) or turnouts are one of the important systems in the Swedish railway traffic maintenance planning. For immediate diverting of the trains, they need to be predict the working condition for short time duration, also known as nowcasting and for long time duration, also known as forecasting. The prediction of the condition of turnout is useful for traffic planning without disrupting to the traffic. Hence, the main purpose of this paper is to predict the condition of S&Cs for shorter and longer duration. In order to achieve it, at first, statistical analysis is carried out to find the root causes of failures. Secondly, non-homogenous Poisson process is applied to nowcast and forecast the working condition. The results of this study will guide the train dispatchers to plan the train timetable according the present traffic.

Keywords: Non-homogenous Poisson process; Nowcasting; Switches and crossings; Railway (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13198-020-01002-w Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:11:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s13198-020-01002-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/engineering/journal/13198

DOI: 10.1007/s13198-020-01002-w

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management is currently edited by P.K. Kapur, A.K. Verma and U. Kumar

More articles in International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management from Springer, The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().