Risk assessment model based on multi-agent systems for complex product design

Ni Li (), Xiang Li, Yuzhong Shen, Zhuming Bi and Minghui Sun
Additional contact information
Ni Li: Beihang University
Xiang Li: Beihang University
Yuzhong Shen: Old Dominion University
Zhuming Bi: Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne
Minghui Sun: Beihang University

Information Systems Frontiers, 2015, vol. 17, issue 2, No 9, 363-385

Abstract: Abstract Design of a complex product takes a long and intricate process, and mostly, it has the multidisciplinary nature. The design can become even challenging if the product to be designed is totally new since numerous technical challenges and uncertainties are involved. In this paper, the risk assessment for complex product design is discussed, and the quantification of the risk is focused. A new risk model has been proposed; which is based on Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). With the consideration of the similarity between the design of a product and that of an adaptive system, a hierarchical network is used to represent the design process based on an agent-based approach. In the proposed model, the concept of material flow is conceived to describe the interactions among agents, and the risks associated with the design activities are analyzed using the probabilistic assessment tools to simulate the risk propagation. The risk assessment is parameterized and implemented in the platform of the Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit (Repast), and the risk level was quantified by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, experiments are conducted with two typical scenarios, and simulation results are analyzed in details. Finally, the future work based on the developed model is discussed.

Keywords: Risk assessment; Multi-agent systems; Risk propagation; Quantitative simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10796-013-9452-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:infosf:v:17:y:2015:i:2:d:10.1007_s10796-013-9452-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/10796

DOI: 10.1007/s10796-013-9452-7

Access Statistics for this article

Information Systems Frontiers is currently edited by Ram Ramesh and Raghav Rao

More articles in Information Systems Frontiers from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().