Spatial Modeling of Day-Within-Year Temperature Time Series: An Examination of Daily Maximum Temperatures in Aragón, Spain

Jorge Castillo-Mateo (), Miguel Lafuente, Jesús Asín, Ana C. Cebrián, Alan E. Gelfand and Jesús Abaurrea
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Jorge Castillo-Mateo: University of Zaragoza
Miguel Lafuente: University of Zaragoza
Jesús Asín: University of Zaragoza
Ana C. Cebrián: University of Zaragoza
Alan E. Gelfand: Duke University
Jesús Abaurrea: University of Zaragoza

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 2022, vol. 27, issue 3, No 5, 487-505

Abstract: Abstract Acknowledging a considerable literature on modeling daily temperature data, we propose a multi-level spatiotemporal model which introduces several innovations in order to explain the daily maximum temperature in the summer period over 60 years in a region containing Aragón, Spain. The model operates over continuous space but adopts two discrete temporal scales, year and day within year. It captures temporal dependence through autoregression on days within year and also on years. Spatial dependence is captured through spatial process modeling of intercepts, slope coefficients, variances, and autocorrelations. The model is expressed in a form which separates fixed effects from random effects and also separates space, years, and days for each type of effect. Motivated by exploratory data analysis, fixed effects to capture the influence of elevation, seasonality, and a linear trend are employed. Pure errors are introduced for years, for locations within years, and for locations at days within years. The performance of the model is checked using a leave-one-out cross-validation. Applications of the model are presented including prediction of the daily temperature series at unobserved or partially observed sites and inference to investigate climate change comparison. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Keywords: Autoregression; Gaussian process; Hierarchical model; Long-term trend; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Spatially varying coefficients (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s13253-022-00493-3

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