Measuring Brazilian Economic Uncertainty

Pedro Costa Ferreira (), Raíra Marotta B. Vieira (), Felipi Bruno Silva () and Ingrid C. L. Oliveira ()
Additional contact information
Pedro Costa Ferreira: Getulio Vargas Foundation – FGV
Raíra Marotta B. Vieira: Getulio Vargas Foundation – FGV
Felipi Bruno Silva: Graduate School of Economics – EPGE - FGV/RJ
Ingrid C. L. Oliveira: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics – IBGE

Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2019, vol. 15, issue 1, No 2, 25-40

Abstract: Abstract We propose a measure of economic uncertainty, the Brazilian Economic Uncertainty Indicator, based on the news as well as business forecasts. The index expands the variety of newspapers handled by Baker et al. (Q J Econ 131(4):1593–1636, 2016) for Brazil. Our indicator captures Brazilian recent events such as the corruption scandals, the fiscal and economic crisis, the 2016 impeachment, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2002 presidential elections as moments of high uncertainty. An econometric study using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach was carried out and revealed that uncertainty shocks cause an economic downturn in subsequent periods, as emphasized in the relevant literature.

Keywords: Uncertainty; Economy; Web-scraping (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41549-018-00034-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:15:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-018-00034-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... nomics/journal/41549

DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-00034-3

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business Cycle Research is currently edited by Michael Graff

More articles in Journal of Business Cycle Research from Springer, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().