How far is FDI relevant to India’s foreign trade growth? An empirical investigation

Shib Sankar Jana (), Tarak Nath Sahu () and Krishna Dayal Pandey ()
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Shib Sankar Jana: Belda College
Tarak Nath Sahu: Vidyasagar University
Krishna Dayal Pandey: Vidyasagar University

Journal of Economic Structures, 2020, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-19

Abstract: Abstract The study seeks to foster fresh empirical evidence on how FDI is relevant to the foreign trade growth in India under a time-varying parameter model with vector autoregressive specification. The Johansen’s cointegration test documents a significant and positive long-run co-movement between FDI and foreign trade in India. The vector error correction model suggests a unidirectional long-run causality from foreign trade to FDI. However, the Granger causality test confirms a bidirectional short-run causal relationship between these variables. Further, the variance decomposition analysis approves strong exogeneity of foreign trade. Again, the impulse response function analysis reveals that the responses generated from a positive shock of foreign trade to FDI and vice versa are small and initially negative and thereafter remain persistently positive at a constant level. The study finally concludes that the absence of long-run causality from FDI to export is the result of much domestic market orientation of foreign investors and less emphasis on the export-oriented sectors in India.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment; Foreign trade; Export; Vector autoregressive specification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 F13 F14 F21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1186/s40008-020-00212-6

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