Microfounding GARCH models and beyond: a Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents

Michele Vodret (), Iacopo Mastromatteo, Bence Tóth and Michael Benzaquen
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Michele Vodret: Ecole polytechnique
Iacopo Mastromatteo: Ecole polytechnique
Bence Tóth: Ecole polytechnique
Michael Benzaquen: Ecole polytechnique

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, 2023, vol. 18, issue 3, No 6, 599-625

Abstract: Abstract We relax the strong rationality assumption for the agents in the paradigmatic Kyle model of price formation, thereby reconciling the framework of asymmetrically informed traders with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, where agents use inductive rather than deductive reasoning. Building on these ideas, we propose a stylised model able to account parsimoniously for a rich phenomenology, ranging from excess volatility to volatility clustering. While characterizing the excess-volatility dynamics, we provide a microfoundation for GARCH models. Volatility clustering is shown to be related to the self-excited dynamics induced by traders’ behavior, and does not rely on clustered fundamental innovations. Finally, we propose an extension able to account for the fragile dynamics exhibited by real markets during flash crashes.

Keywords: Adaptive agents; Volatility clustering; Excess volatility; Price impact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11403-023-00379-8

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