Agent-Based Model Analysis of Impact of Immigration on Switzerland’s Social Security

Marcello Marini (), Ndaona Chokani and Reza S. Abhari
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Marcello Marini: Institut for Energy Technology, LEC, ETH
Ndaona Chokani: Institut for Energy Technology, LEC, ETH
Reza S. Abhari: Institut for Energy Technology, LEC, ETH

Journal of International Migration and Integration, 2019, vol. 20, issue 3, No 9, 787-808

Abstract: Abstract Within a society of demographic aging, which is increasing financial pressure on the social security system, and with significant immigration due to relative prosperity, it is a challenge to design social policy that addresses the needs of the whole society. In order to account for the complex interactions of population dynamics, urban development, and population behavior, we have developed a comprehensive simulation framework with agent-based models on graphical processor unit computer architecture. Using as a test case the whole population of Switzerland, we have examined on an annual basis until the year 2035 the impacts of three different trends of immigration on Switzerland’s social security system. Our agent-based simulations show that if the annual immigration rates are limited to 50% of today’s rate, the social security system will become insolvent by 2027. On the other hand, if immigration rates are maintained, but tailored to favor large families with children, the social security system is then more sustainable.

Keywords: Social security; Impact of immigration; Agent-based model; Population simulation; Future scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s12134-018-0631-8

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