Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities

Jakub Lonsky

Journal of Population Economics, 2021, vol. 34, issue 1, No 4, 97-139

Abstract: Abstract Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in a municipality decreases the Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for the welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.

Keywords: Immigration; Far-right; Political economy; Voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H71 J15 J61 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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Working Paper: Does Immigration Decrease Far-Fight Popularity? Evidence from Finnish Municipalities (2018)
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DOI: 10.1007/s00148-020-00784-4

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