The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the demand for health care and on mortality: evidence from COVID-19 in Scandinavia

Steffen Juranek and Floris T. Zoutman ()
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Floris T. Zoutman: NHH Norwegian School of Economics AND NOCET and CESifo

Journal of Population Economics, 2021, vol. 34, issue 4, No 6, 1299-1320

Abstract: Abstract We study the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 on the allocation of scarce resources in the hospital sector in Scandinavia. Denmark and Norway imposed strict NPIs, but Sweden followed an extraordinarily lenient approach. We use an event study to compare COVID-19 hospitalizations, intensive-care (ICU) patients, and deaths in Sweden with Denmark and Norway. The outcome variables initially follow a common trend, but diverge 2–3 weeks after lockdown. Both the timing of the effect and the similarity in the trend between Denmark and Norway are highly consistent with a causal effect of the lockdown. We use our event study to build a counterfactual model that predicts the outcome variables for Denmark and Norway if they had followed Sweden’s approach. In the absence of strict NPIs, the peak number of hospitalizations would have been 2.5 (3.5) times as large in Denmark (Norway). Overall, Denmark (Norway) would have had 334 (671) percent more hospital-patient days, 277 (379) percent more ICU-patient days, and 402 (1015) percent more deaths. The benefit of lockdown in terms of healthcare and mortality costs amounts to between 1 and 4 (0.9 and 3.5) percent of GDP in Denmark (Norway).

Keywords: COVID-19; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Healthcare costs; Mortality; Health economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I10 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00868-9

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