Modeling traveler recovery time following man-made incidents: the case of the Athens metro

Christina Milioti (), Konstantinos Kepaptsoglou (), Alexandros Deloukas (), Gerasimos Prodromitis () and Christina Iliopoulou ()
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Christina Milioti: National Technical University of Athens
Konstantinos Kepaptsoglou: National Technical University of Athens
Alexandros Deloukas: Atttiko Metro S.A
Gerasimos Prodromitis: Panteion University
Christina Iliopoulou: National Technical University of Athens

Journal of Transportation Security, 2019, vol. 12, issue 3, No 3, 103-117

Abstract: Abstract Man-man, life-threating incidents such as terrorist attacks, can have a significant impact in travel behavior and public transport ridership. Based on data collected from an extensive personal interview survey undertaken in Athens (Greece), factors affecting post-incident recovery time of metro users (i.e. the time till travelers will start re-using the metro system) are investigated and modeled. A preliminary statistical analysis reveals that most survey participants would return in the metro system within a week, while almost 16% of them exhibits a persistent change in traveler behavior as they would avoid using the metro system for more than 6 months. A clustering methodology and a discrete duration model are applied to further analyze and model metro user recovery time. Results show that women, less educated travelers, non-frequent users and travelers with higher risk perception, are less likely to use the metro system after a man-made incident.

Keywords: Metro user recovery time; Discrete duration model; Man-made incident; Travel behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s12198-019-00205-y

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