Improving African bean productivity in a changing global environment

Gebel Taba-Morales, Glenn Hyman (), Jorge Rubiano Mejía, Fabio Castro-Llanos, Stephen Beebe, Jean Claude Rubyogo, Enid Katungi and Robin Buruchara
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Gebel Taba-Morales: Departamento de Geografía
Glenn Hyman: Spatial Informatics Group
Jorge Rubiano Mejía: Departamento de Geografía
Fabio Castro-Llanos: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)
Stephen Beebe: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)
Jean Claude Rubyogo: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)
Enid Katungi: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)
Robin Buruchara: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2020, vol. 25, issue 6, No 5, 1013-1029

Abstract: Abstract Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) cultivation delivers income to farmers and nutrition to consumers in sub-Saharan Africa. With a growing population and land scarcity, there will be greater pressure to intensify common bean and other crops in the region. However, high temperatures and increased drought may reduce common bean yields in Africa. Climate change impacts on climbing beans are not yet clear. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the expected impact of climate change on suitability for climbing bean cultivation. The study identifies areas suitable to cultivate climbing beans in sub-Saharan Africa, taking into account the present climate as well as the predicted future climate. The analysis compares and evaluates the performance of two ecological niche models—Ecocrop and MaxEnt—under future climatic conditions, according to global circulation models of the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The Ecocrop model results showed a wide common bean distribution in comparison with those of MaxEnt, which showed a better approximation to the current distribution of climbing beans. The MaxEnt model performed well as judged by validation statistics and comparison with climbing bean production data. Overall, the models project climate change to decrease the suitability of climbing beans in Africa. The results suggest that rising temperatures and variable rainfall will most severely affect bean production in countries of southern Africa such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique. In other parts of the tropics, climbing bean cultivation may suffer rising temperatures and more variable rainfall at higher latitudes, as opposed to areas near the equator. The study suggests where agricultural specialists can promote climbing beans in Africa and other regions of the world, where they are highly suitable and not yet widely cultivated. Researchers can improve studies such as this one for beans and other crops by developing more detailed calibration and validation data sets for modeling efforts.

Keywords: Climbing beans; Species distribution models; MaxEnt; Ecocrop; Climate change; Spatial analysis; Geographic distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-019-09910-4

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