ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios

Amandine Valérie Pastor (), Joao Pedro Nunes, Rossano Ciampalini, Haithem Bahri, Mohamed Annabi, Mohamed Chikhaoui, Armand Crabit, Stéphane Follain, Jan Jacob Keizer, Jérôme Latron, Feliciana Licciardello, Laurène Marien, Insaf Mekki, Mariano Moreno de las Heras, Antonio J. Molina, Mustapha Naimi, Mohamed Sabir, Sandra Valente and Damien Raclot
Additional contact information
Amandine Valérie Pastor: LISAH, University Montpellier, INRAE, IRD, Institut Agro
Joao Pedro Nunes: University of Lisbon
Rossano Ciampalini: LISAH, University Montpellier, INRAE, IRD, Institut Agro
Haithem Bahri: University of Carthage, INRGREF
Mohamed Annabi: University of Carthage, INRAT
Mohamed Chikhaoui: Institut Agronomique Et Vétérinaire Hassan II
Armand Crabit: Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD
Stéphane Follain: Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté
Jan Jacob Keizer: University of Aveiro
Jérôme Latron: Spanish Research Council (CSIC)
Feliciana Licciardello: University of Catania
Laurène Marien: Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD
Insaf Mekki: University of Carthage, INRGREF
Mariano Moreno de las Heras: Spanish Research Council (CSIC)
Antonio J. Molina: Spanish Research Council (CSIC)
Mustapha Naimi: Institut Agronomique Et Vétérinaire Hassan II
Mohamed Sabir: Ecole Nationale Forestière d’Ingénieurs (ENFI)
Sandra Valente: University of Aveiro
Damien Raclot: LISAH, University Montpellier, INRAE, IRD, Institut Agro

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2022, vol. 27, issue 8, No 4, 29 pages

Abstract: Abstract Scenarios serve science by testing the sensitivity of a system and/or society to adapt to the future. In this study, we present a new land use scenario methodology called ScenaLand. This methodology aims to develop plausible and contrasting land use and management (LUM) scenarios, useful to explore how LUM (e.g. soil and water conservation techniques) may affect ecosystem services under global change in a wide range of environments. ScenaLand is a method for constructing narrative and spatially explicit land use scenarios that are useful for end-users and impact modellers. This method is innovative because it merges literature and expert knowledge, and its low data requirement makes it easy to be implemented in the context of inter-site comparison, including global change projections. ScenaLand was developed and tested on six different Mediterranean agroecological and socioeconomic contexts during the MASCC research project (Mediterranean agricultural soil conservation under global change). The method first highlights the socioeconomic trends of each study site including emerging trends such as new government laws, LUM techniques through a qualitative survey addressed to local experts. Then, the method includes a ranking of driving factors, a matrix about land use evolution, and soil and water conservation techniques. ScenaLand also includes a framework to develop narratives along with two priority axes (contextualized to environmental protection vs. land productivity in this study). In the context of this research project, four contrasting scenarios are proposed: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (market-oriented), S3 (environmental protection), and S4 (sustainable). Land use maps are then built with the creation of LUM allocation rules based on agroecological zoning. ScenaLand resulted in a robust and easy method to apply with the creation of 24 contrasted scenarios. These scenarios come not only with narratives but also with spatially explicit maps that are potentially used by impact modellers and other end-users. The last part of our study discusses the way the method can be implemented including a comparison between sites and the possibilities to implement ScenaLand in other contexts.

Keywords: Land degradation; Land use and management scenarios; Narrative; Experts; Soil and water conservation techniques (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-022-10024-7

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