Future land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye)

Abdurrahim Aydın and Remzi Eker ()
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Abdurrahim Aydın: Düzce University
Remzi Eker: İzmir Katip Çelebi University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 114, issue 3, No 12, 2683-2707

Abstract: Abstract This study aimed to determine past and potential future temporal and spatial changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and to evaluate its interactions with natural hazards (especially snow avalanches and rockfalls) in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye). The objectives were (1) to assess past LULC change over the last 60 years (1955–2015), (2) to simulate future LULC with Dyna-CLUE by 2035 and 2050 considering two different scenarios, and (3) to evaluate interactions of past and future LULC change with natural hazards. The analysis of past LULC change showed that over the last 60 years settlement areas increased to 51.03 ha converting fully from agricultural areas. According to the future LULC simulations, scenario 1 showed that settlements will expand from 68 ha in 2015 to 97.5 ha in 2035, and up to 126.5 ha in 2050 towards areas that are exposed to snow avalanches. Scenario 2 showed that these settlement areas will increase to 119.75 ha in 2035 and 137.75 ha in 2050. In addition, according to scenario 1 settlements that are exposed to rockfall hazard will change from 28 ha in 2015 to 24 ha in 2035 and 28.25 ha in 2050, whereas according to scenario 2 these areas will change to 26.25 ha in 2035 and 28.75 ha in 2050. This study showed how LULC dramatically changed since 1955 due to population growth and changes in consumption patterns in society, and it further showed potential changes in the future. It was concluded that an obligatory increase in settlements towards dangerous areas will be observed in the future.

Keywords: Avalanche; Dyna-CLUE; LULC; Natural hazards; Rockfall (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05485-7

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