GIS-Based Probabilistic Mapping of Landslide Hazard Using a Three-Dimensional Deterministic Model

Mowen Xie (), Tetsuro Esaki and Guoyun Zhou

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2004, vol. 33, issue 2, 265-282

Abstract: Based on a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) grid-basedthree-dimensional (3-D) deterministic model and taking the slopeunit as the mapping unit, this study maps landslide hazard usingthe 3-D safety factor index and failure probability. Assuming theinitial slip to be the lower part of an ellipsoid, the 3-D critical slipsurface in the 3-D slope stability analysis is located by minimizingthe 3-D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation.The failure probability of the landslide is calculated using anapproximate method in which the distributions of c, Φ andthe 3-D safety factor are assumed to be in normal distribution.The method has been applied to a case study on three-dimensionallyand probabilistically mapping landslide hazard. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Keywords: Geographic Information Systems (GIS); three-dimensional slope stability; failure probability; Monte Carlo simulation; slope unit; landslide hazard (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000037036.01850.0d

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