On the modeling of ground-motion field for assessment of multiple-location hazard, damage, and loss: example of estimation of electric network performance during scenario earthquake

Vladimir Sokolov () and Friedemann Wenzel

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2014, vol. 74, issue 3, 1555-1575

Abstract: Consideration of within-earthquake ground-motion correlation is essential for the estimation of seismic hazards, damage, and loss for spatially distributed systems. In many seismically active regions, the strong motion data of real engineering significance are completely unavailable or very scarce. The absence of necessary data does not allow developing regional empirical correlation models, and the models obtained for other regions should be used with correspondent sensitivity analysis. The level of within-earthquake correlation may vary in broad range; therefore, development of correspondent criteria for selection from available models is important. In this paper, we analyzed the performance of a system of critical elements of electric power network (substations) depending on variations in within-earthquake correlation. The performance is described as probability of different levels of non-functionality, i.e., percentage of area suffering power outage, and probability of expected number of customers without power. We have shown that the proper choice of the within-earthquake correlation model is critical in comprehensive estimations of functionality of substations in electrical power system. Skipping the ground-motion variability and within-earthquake correlation may lead to unreliable results. Relevance of geology-based within-earthquake correlation models has been demonstrated, and a scheme, which allows reducing uncertainty in the choice of realistic correlation, has been proposed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: Within-earthquake correlation models; Functionality of electric system; Substations; Scenario earthquakes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1262-9 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:3:p:1555-1575

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1262-9

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().