Time and frequency volatility spillovers among commodities: Evidence from pre and during the Russia-Ukraine war

Yunfei Chen and Wei Jiang ()
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Yunfei Chen: Fudan University
Wei Jiang: Qingdao University

Portuguese Economic Journal, 2024, vol. 23, issue 2, No 4, 249-273

Abstract: Abstract This paper studies the volatility spillovers among commodities in both magnitude and timescale before and after the Russia-Ukraine war. We adopt the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28:57–66, 2012) and the Baruník and Křehlík (J Financ Economet 16:271–296, 2018) method based the 15-min trading data. The results show that the war increases total volatility spillover from 35.54% to 49.00%. Although total spillover is the largest within a day, net spillovers of some commodities are stronger in long term. More importantly, the war increases the importance of precious metals, oil & fats, crops, and agricultural products in different time–frequency domains. The volatility spillover of precious metals as safe-haven assets within one week increases the most. The role of the oil & fats sector changes from a net receiver to a risk transmitter. Meanwhile, crops and agricultural products sectors dominate the overall spillover in the long-term during the ongoing war period. Furthermore, the time-varying results suggest that the impact of the war is durable in the long term.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine; War; Commodity; Volatility; Spillovers; Q43; E65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10258-023-00242-5

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