The College Completion Puzzle: A Hidden Markov Model Approach

Dirk Witteveen () and Paul Attewell
Additional contact information
Dirk Witteveen: The City University of New York
Paul Attewell: The City University of New York

Research in Higher Education, 2017, vol. 58, issue 4, No 5, 449-467

Abstract: Abstract Higher education in America is characterized by widespread access to college but low rates of completion, especially among undergraduates at less selective institutions. We analyze longitudinal transcript data to examine processes leading to graduation, using Hidden Markov modeling. We identify several latent states that are associated with patterns of course taking, and show that a trained Hidden Markov model can predict graduation or nongraduation based on only a few semesters of transcript data. We compare this approach to more conventional methods and conclude that certain college-specific processes, associated with graduation, should be analyzed in addition to socio-economic factors. The results from the Hidden Markov trajectories indicate that both graduating and nongraduating students take the more difficult mathematical and technical courses at an equal rate. However, undergraduates who complete their bachelor’s degree within 6 years are more likely to alternate between these semesters with a heavy course load and the less course-intense semesters. The course-taking patterns found among college students also indicate that nongraduates withdraw more often from coursework than average, yet when graduates withdraw, they tend do so in exactly those semesters of the college career in which more difficult courses are taken. These findings, as well as the sequence methodology itself, emphasize the importance of careful course selection and counseling early on in student’s college career.

Keywords: College completion; COURSE-TAKING; Academic momentum; Quantitative methodology; Longitudinal analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11162-016-9430-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:reihed:v:58:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11162-016-9430-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/11162

DOI: 10.1007/s11162-016-9430-2

Access Statistics for this article

Research in Higher Education is currently edited by Robert K. Toutkoushian

More articles in Research in Higher Education from Springer, Association for Institutional Research
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().