An indicator of technical emergence

Stephen F. Carley (), Nils C. Newman, Alan L. Porter and Jon G. Garner
Additional contact information
Stephen F. Carley: Enterprise Innovation Institute, Georgia Tech
Nils C. Newman: Intelligent Information Services Corporation
Alan L. Porter: Search Technology, Inc
Jon G. Garner: Search Technology, Inc

Scientometrics, 2018, vol. 115, issue 1, No 3, 35-49

Abstract: Abstract Developing useful intelligence on scientific and technological emergence challenges those who would manage R&D portfolios, assess research programs, or manage innovation. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition Program has explored means to detect emergence via text analyses. We have been involved in positing conceptual bases for emergence, framing candidate indicators, and devising implementations. We now present a software script to generate a family of Emergence Indicators for a topic of interest. This paper offers some background, then discusses the development of this script through iterative rounds of testing, and then offers example findings. Results point to promising and actionable intelligence for R&D decision-makers.

Keywords: Emergence indicators; Technological emergence; Scientific emergence; Tech mining (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-018-2654-5

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