Predicting long-run citation counts for articles in top economics journals

Vasilios D. Kosteas ()
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Vasilios D. Kosteas: Cleveland State University

Scientometrics, 2018, vol. 115, issue 3, No 15, 1395-1412

Abstract: Abstract We examine the relative strength of short-term citation counts, bibliometric measures such as journal impact factors, and journal rankings in terms of predicting long-run citations. Using a set of articles published in sixty of the highest reputation economics journals in 1994, we find that citations received over fairly short windows (between 1 and 2 years after publication) are much stronger predictors of long-run citation counts compared with journal impact factors or other journal rankings. Our results are robust to a series of robustness checks. These findings suggest department heads and tenure and promotion committees should place greater weight on short-term citations as opposed to article placement when making personnel decisions.

Keywords: Citation counts; Journal impact factor; Economics journals; Journal rankings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A19 I23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11192-018-2703-0

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