A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy

E. A. Orlova, D. R. Belousov () and D. I. Galimov
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E. A. Orlova: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences
D. R. Belousov: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences
D. I. Galimov: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2020, vol. 31, issue 2, 171-180

Abstract: Abstract— The paper considers the model that estimates the potential GDP and output gap in the economy of Russia in the light of specific features. The model allows us not only to build forecasts of these indicators, but also to obtain the breakdown of unobservable variables to show the contribution of observed factors. Thus, potential GDP is decomposed into the contribution of labor, funds and total factor productivity. The output gap indicator distinguishes foreign trade, conjunctural components and the element explained by monetary policy.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700720020070

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