Tools of the Technocenosis Theory for Forecasting Electricity Consumption in Russia

S. A. Nekrasov ()
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S. A. Nekrasov: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, vol. 32, issue 3, 263-273

Abstract: Abstract— The presented study of patterns of changes in specific (per capita) electricity consumption (SEC) in developed and developing countries, as well as in Russian regions, demonstrates that Russia does not have preconditions for electricity consumption growth to over 1400 bn kWh under the high scenario of the demographic forecast and to over 1300 bn kWh under the medium scenario. While differences between SECs in developed and developing countries have been decreasing since the 1960s, SEC differentiation among Russian regions is increasing. The conclusion reached using tools of the technocenosis theory is that efforts should be focused not on electricity consumption growth in regions with high energy supply (those specializing in mineral production and metallurgy), but on increasing SEC in outsider regions. The problem of reducing differences in SEC between Russian regions is important for the structural stability of the national economy as a system.

Keywords: specific electricity consumption; population dynamics; structural stability of the Russian economy; tectology; technocenosis theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721030102

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