Institutional Factors in Economic Forecasts

A. A. Blokhin () and R. V. Gridin
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A. A. Blokhin: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
R. V. Gridin: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, vol. 32, issue 5, 459-466

Abstract: Abstract— The article assesses the possibilities of including institutional factors in macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts. It has been substantiated that a number of institutional features associated with the concentration of business in sectors of the economy and its consolidation around the leading group of companies in the market may reflect qualitative changes in the architecture of markets, the strengthening of explicit or implicit dominance, the formation of institutional barriers and traps. At the same time, the outstripping growth of large business significantly affects the industry dynamics and structural shifts, but is not synchronized across industries and is uneven in time. An approach is proposed for comparing the processes of business consolidation in the sectors of the Russian consumer market. Quantitative calculations have been performed, confirming the hypothesis of the importance of institutional factors that enhance the influence of large business in industries on the dynamics of their indicators. An assumption is made about a qualitative change in the sensitivity of markets to government regulation measures, depending on the stability of their architecture.

Keywords: multilevel economics; institutional differences; economic dominance; institutional rent; market architecture; economic forecasting; institutional forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721050051

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