Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model

I. A. Lakman (), R. A. Askarov, V. B. Prudnikov, Z. F. Askarova and V. M. Timiryanova
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I. A. Lakman: Bashkir State University
R. A. Askarov: Ordzhonikidze Russian State Geological Prospecting University
V. B. Prudnikov: Bashkir State University
Z. F. Askarova: Bashkir State University
V. M. Timiryanova: Bashkir State University

Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, vol. 32, issue 5, 536-548

Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes and predicts age-sex mortality rates by causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The following methods of analysis were used: the Lee–Carter model, singular value decomposition, and ARIMA-modeling. The forecast results suggest that by 2025 the Republic of Bashkortostan will have lower mortality due to malignant neoplasms in all age groups, except for the 70+ group for women and 50+ age groups for men; lower mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in all age groups for men and higher mortality in 45+ age groups for women; lower mortality due to injuries in all age groups for both sexes; no significant changes in mortality due to respiratory diseases; increased mortality from gastrointestinal diseases for both sexes at all ages, except for children; higher mortality due to infections at 20–54 for men and 20–64 for women; and almost half lower mortality from infections in the age group of 0–4 years for both sexes.

Keywords: population mortality by causes; Lee–Carter model; forecast; ARIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721050063

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