Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Availability in a River Basin under CORDEX Simulated Future Projections

Jew Das and N. V. Umamahesh ()
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Jew Das: National Institute of Technology
N. V. Umamahesh: National Institute of Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2018, vol. 32, issue 4, No 13, 1399-1419

Abstract: Abstract In the present study, spatio-temporal variability of hydrological components under climate change is analysed over Wainganga River basin, India. In order to address the climate change projection, hydrological modelling is carried out using a macro scale, semi-distributed three (3)-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3 L) model. The high-resolution (0.5o × 0.5o) meteorological variables are divided into multiple periods to calibrate and validate the VIC-3 L model. The future projections (2020–2094) of the water balance components are achieved using the high resolution hydrological variables from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) dataset under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The uncertainty associated with the multi-model projections are evaluated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) and the bias correction is accomplished with non-parametric quantile mapping. A probabilistic based areal drought index is also computed for different scenarios using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). From the results, it is observed that amount of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and runoff has increased over the basin with no change in the spatial pattern. However, temporal variability is noticed with an increasing trend for rainfall and runoff in the non-monsoon season than the monsoon. Streamflow is expected to increase significantly, especially for medium to low flows (those occurring between 0.2 and 0.9 probability of exceedance in a Flow Duration Curve). In addition, the area under the drought condition has decreased under the projected climate scenarios.

Keywords: CORDEX; Water balance; Reliability ensemble averaging; Drought index; Uncertainty analysis; VIC model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1876-2

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