Identification of Drought Occurrences Using Ensemble Predictions up to 20-Days in Advance

Sourabh Shrivastava, Sarat C. Kar (), A. K. Sahai and Anu Rani Sharma
Additional contact information
Sourabh Shrivastava: National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
Sarat C. Kar: National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
A. K. Sahai: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Anu Rani Sharma: TERI University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2018, vol. 32, issue 6, No 10, 2113-2130

Abstract: Abstract In the present study, skill of an extended range forecast system has been evaluated for identifying droughts over central India 20-days in advance. Rainfall forecasts from 44 ensemble members of the forecast system developed Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune have been used to prepare probabilistic rainfall forecasts. It is seen that the uncertainties in the forecasts (in terms of ensemble spread) increases from day-5 to day 20. As the focus of the study is for drought predictions, forecasts in the bins 0-5 mm/5 day and 5-25 mm/5 day (no rain or less rain) were studied in detail. It is found that the modeling system has a tendency to over-forecast rainfall probabilities. With bias correction, the forecasts become more reliable. Various drought indices were computed using the mean of the forecast distribution up to 20-days in advance. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) computed using Gamma and Pearson type-III distributions are similar in the study region. It was found that these are in reasonable agreement with those from observations. Probabilistic forecasts of standardized precipitation index (SPI) were made and the relative operating characteristics (ROC) scores indicate that the forecasted SPI values are suitable for application.

Keywords: Ensemble; Probabilistic; Rainfall; central India; Extended-range; Drought (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-018-1921-9 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1921-9

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1921-9

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().