Area Moment and Error Based Forecasting Difficulty and its Application in Inflow Forecasting Level Evaluation

Zhiqiang Jiang (), Zhengyang Tang, Yi Liu, Yuyun Chen, Zhongkai Feng, Yang Xu and Hairong Zhang
Additional contact information
Zhiqiang Jiang: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Zhengyang Tang: China Yangtze Power Company Limited
Yi Liu: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Yuyun Chen: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Zhongkai Feng: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Yang Xu: China Yangtze Power Company Limited
Hairong Zhang: China Yangtze Power Company Limited

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2019, vol. 33, issue 13, No 9, 4553-4568

Abstract: Abstract As an important input of hydropower stations operation, the forecasted inflow provided by forecaster directly determines the power generation efficiency of hydropower stations. In order to promote the self-improvement of forecasters’ forecasting level through effective reward and punishment, it is necessary to determine a fair and reasonable comprehensive forecasting level evaluation method. In view of this, this paper puts forward the concept of forecasting difficulty, and classifies the external forecasting situations according to different rainfall conditions, different forecasting foresight periods and different inflow levels. Based on the physical meaning of forecasting difficulty, a new calculation method of forecasting difficulty using the error distribution and area moment is proposed in this paper, which can realize the forecasting difficulty calculation under different situations and different forecasting level standards. Coupling the forecasting difficulty coefficient with the forecasting level evaluation, a comprehensive forecasting level evaluation method of forecasters is proposed. The case study results show that, because the forecasting difficulty of different forecasting situations are considered in the proposed method, the higher the forecast accuracy of a forecaster in difficult situations (such as rainy situation), the higher his/her comprehensive forecast level. The result obtained by this method is fairer and more reasonable compared with the traditional method, which is of great significance to promote the forecasting level of forecasters in difficult situations.

Keywords: Inflow forecasting; Forecasting situation; Forecasting difficulty; Error; Distribution function; Area moment; Guandi reservoir (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02414-5 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02414-5

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02414-5

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().