A Novel Method for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment

Wei Pei, Qiang Fu (), Dong Liu, Tianxiao Li, Kun Cheng and Song Cui
Additional contact information
Wei Pei: Northeast Agricultural University
Qiang Fu: Northeast Agricultural University
Dong Liu: Northeast Agricultural University
Tianxiao Li: Northeast Agricultural University
Kun Cheng: Northeast Agricultural University
Song Cui: Northeast Agricultural University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2019, vol. 33, issue 6, No 8, 2033-2047

Abstract: Abstract Climate change, increased temperatures and imbalanced precipitation distributions will potentially increase the local drought risk in certain areas. Drought assessment can identify the hidden dangers of drought and provide a theoretical basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, a new agricultural drought risk assessment method proposed from the perspective of grain yield. The first principal components of precipitation, temperature, humidity and soil moisture represent hazard factors. The sensitive yield, which represents the sensitivity, was separated from the grain yield using a regression method. Additionally, the trend component of the grain yield represents the adaptive capacity, and the crop planting area represents exposure. Based on these definitions, the concepts of unit drought risk and regional drought risk are proposed. Four cities in Heilongjiang Province, which has the highest grain yield of any province in China, were used as application examples, and the spatial and temporal variation in the agricultural drought risk were analyzed. Application example show that the method for evaluating agricultural drought presented in this paper is reasonable in a statistical sense. The process for calculating sensitivity and adaptability shows that this method is suitable for arid and semi-arid areas, where grain yield is sensitive to hazard factors, and areas where grain yield has a certain trend.

Keywords: Grain yield; Agricultural drought risk; Assessment; Heilongjiang (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02225-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02225-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02225-8

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().